Australia's electric vehicle (EV) transition has begun to show an increase in uptake. The EV share of new vehicles has risen compared with the same period in 2024.

However, progress remains slow. EVs now account for the majority of new-car sales in countries such as Norway, Nepal, and China, while Australia remains behind these markets.

If current policy settings remain unchanged, transport is projected to become Australia's largest source of emissions by 2030. Achieving the government's target of a 62-70% emissions reduction by 2035 will require a shift from internal-combustion engine vehicles to EVs.

The Electric Vehicle Council has recommended ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035 to support the transition and align Australia with major trading partners.

A phase-out requires national consideration. Market forces alone have not delivered rapid change. Policy intervention may be needed to increase the pace of transition.

Transport currently accounts for 22% of Australia's total emissions and is the fastest-growing source.

EV adoption will play a role in reducing these emissions. To meet the 2035 emissions reduction target, Australia must reach higher levels of EV market penetration within the next decade.

Without stronger measures and a confirmed phase-out date, achieving this target may be difficult. Although interest in EVs is rising, they still account for a small proportion of the total vehicle fleet.

Multiple countries have already committed to banning or phasing out new petrol, gas, or diesel vehicles.

The UK has set a legislative timeline for all new cars and vans to be zero-emission by 2035.

The European Union has legislated a similar ban. All cars and vans sold after 2035 in the EU must produce zero emissions, with a limited exemption for vehicles using synthetic e-fuels made from captured carbon dioxide and hydrogen under strict conditions.

Agreement on this legislation involved negotiation. Germany, the EU's largest vehicle-producing nation, opposed the ban unless e-fuels were allowed. The EU accepted a compromise enabling the continued use of combustion engines operating on "climate-neutral fuel".

This measure remains one of the firmest regulatory approaches to phasing out fossil-fuel vehicles. Many major carmakers support the ban, and several manufacturers have indicated plans to cease the sale of new petrol and diesel cars ahead of 2035. Mercedes-Benz has expressed opposition.

A key issue in the EU was the introduction of a ban without detailed transition planning. When bans are proposed, stakeholders with interests in existing technologies often seek to limit their scope.

Effective phase-outs require safeguards to maintain progress. These include interim targets, review processes, protections against loopholes, and measures that address equity and infrastructure needs.

Restrictions on products typically face resistance. When the Australian Government introduced the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, there was opposition, despite the standard not mandating sales targets or bans, but instead setting limits on emissions from new vehicles.

Federal Minister Chris Bowen has stated that the transition should rely on measures such as efficiency standards, incentives, and infrastructure rather than bans.

Mr Bowen has commented that Australia "cannot just wish away fossil fuels" and has rejected earlier proposals to prohibit the sale of new internal-combustion engine vehicles. He has indicated that bans could be politically contentious.

Such a policy may be used in political debate, including by opposition parties and by government MPs representing areas with high car dependency.

Car dealers and industry groups with interests in internal-combustion vehicles are expected to oppose measures that increase the transition rate to EVs. EV manufacturers and charging-infrastructure companies are likely to support such measures.

Interest in EVs is increasing, but affordability, model availability, and charging-infrastructure reliability continue to be issues.

Any Australian ban would need to be legislative or regulatory, rather than indicative. It should include targets for EV adoption and infrastructure expansion to provide planning certainty for industry.

Supporting policies would need to include increasing fuel-efficiency standards and incentives, and implementing equitable road-pricing and registration reforms.

Charging infrastructure would require substantial expansion, particularly in rural, regional, and remote areas.

Equity measures would be required, including support for lower-income and rural households, suitable trade-in arrangements, and policies that maintain sustainable used-vehicle markets so that households unable to purchase new EVs have options.

Policies would need to include mechanisms to prevent regression, including limits on exemptions, scheduled reviews, and transparency requirements.

The automotive sector would require transition assistance, including workforce training and incentives for domestic manufacturing to support the local EV industry.

A ban should form part of a broader policy framework that includes removing subsidies and incentives for fossil-fuel vehicles and consideration of a cost-neutral feebate scheme. Under such a scheme, higher-emission vehicle purchasers would contribute to rebates for low- or zero-emission vehicles.

Countries that have implemented similar systems include France with its Bonus-Malus scheme and New Zealand with the Clean Car Discount.

Banning petrol vehicles by 2035 is being adopted in several markets. Relying solely on voluntary market change is not expected to meet emissions goals.

Opposition to bans is anticipated. Experience in Europe indicates that interest groups are likely to attempt to delay or reduce the effect of such policies.

A phase-out date must be accompanied by a delivery plan, not used only as a public statement, and must guide transport-sector planning and policy.

For Australia, a 2035 ban may be challenging. Without such a measure, transport emissions may restrict progress towards national climate objectives. The key issue is whether Australia will align policy implementation with stated targets.