Hilux and Land Cruiser customers may face higher prices under Australian Government rules that penalise car brands for the emissions of the vehicles they sell.

Toyota has joined brands such as Nissan and Mitsubishi in warning that fines imposed on car companies for importing high-emitting diesel utes (pick-up trucks) and SUVs may need to be passed on to buyers through higher showroom prices.

"We will continue to support those rural and regional customers that rely on these diesel vehicles as essential to their transport needs, or as a tool of trade, due to the challenging NVES targets for commercial vehicles from 2027 onwards, we cannot rule out price increases," Toyota Australia sales and marketing boss John Pappas told media.

The New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) sets CO2 targets for every vehicle imported by a car brand, based on its classification and weight, with the emissions averaged over a calendar year.

Car manufacturers can continue to sell vehicles that do not meet the strict targets, but they must offset them with sufficient low- or zero-emission models to avoid paying penalties.

The 'commercial vehicle' NVES targets referenced by Pappas cover utes such as the Hilux, as well as ladder-frame SUVs that can tow at least 3,000kg, such as the diesel Land Cruiser Prado and Land Cruiser 300 Series.

In 2025, the first year of the rules, a Hilux SR5 48V diesel dual-cab ute was sufficiently below the emissions threshold to earn Toyota 'credits' equivalent to offsetting a AUD 1,000 (US$ 700) fine, calculated at AUD 50 per gram per kilometre of CO2 over the limit.

This year, each example imported is subject to an estimated AUD 500 in penalties, while next year the amount is expected to increase to an estimated AUD 2,000.

While penalties are imposed on car manufacturers, many major brands have warned that, as businesses that need to generate a profit, they may need to pass some of the costs of the fines on to customers.

Pappas said Toyota has long supported emissions targets for new vehicles, but said the limits legislated by the Federal Government are too aggressive.

"The big challenge comes from 2027 when it comes to light commercial vehicles. That's where the NVES targets are really challenging on the light-commercial vehicle front, what we can see through all our orders is that even when you look at the composition of the market when it comes to powertrains, you see that EVs have had good growth, which is great. When you talk about rural and regional Australia, it's not exactly like that, for all the reasons we all sort of know around charging infrastructure, long distances and all these things - they're all real challenges, right?," he said.

The Toyota executive did not rule out purchasing 'credits' from other car brands to offset its fines, but said, "we want to be self managed as much as possible."

A Federal Government review of the NVES is underway, and Toyota said it would renew its calls for a policy that is "ambitious, albeit equitable, and pragmatic".