Australia's electric vehicle (EV) transition, previously slow, has begun to accelerate.

Despite this increase, EV adoption remains lower than in countries such as Norway, Nepal, and China.

If current trends continue, transport is projected to become Australia's largest source of emissions by 2030. Meeting the government's target of reducing emissions by 62-70% by 2035 will require a shift from combustion-engine vehicles to EVs.

The Electric Vehicle Council has called for the cessation of new petrol and diesel car sales by 2035 to accelerate this transition.

Establishing a sunset date would align Australia with major trading partners. Although political and industry resistance is likely, a phase-out warrants public consideration. Relying on market forces alone has resulted in a slow transition.

Rationale for a phase-out

Transport currently accounts for 22% of Australia's total emissions and is the fastest-growing source. EVs are necessary to reduce these emissions.

Australia must achieve a significant EV market share for new cars within the next decade to meet broader 2035 targets.

Without stronger measures and a definitive phase-out, these objectives are unlikely to be met. EVs currently represent a small proportion of the cars on Australian roads.

Several countries have committed to banning or phasing out new petrol, gas, or diesel vehicles. The United Kingdom, for example, has mandated that a majority of new cars and vans be zero-emission by 2030, reaching full compliance by 2035.

Lessons from Europe

The European Union's legislated ban on fossil-fuel vehicles provides relevant experience. From 2035, all cars and vans sold in the EU must legally produce zero emissions, with limited exemptions for vehicles using synthetic e-fuels derived from captured carbon dioxide and hydrogen.

Securing this legislation required negotiation. Germany, the bloc's largest car-making nation, requested e-fuels be permitted, resulting in a compromise that allows combustion engines under specific conditions.

Most major carmakers support the EU ban. Volkswagen has announced plans to cease new petrol and diesel car sales before 2035. Mercedes has expressed opposition.

A key lesson is that bans without defined transition pathways can be weakened. Effective phase-outs require safeguards, including interim targets, review mechanisms, protections against loopholes, and measures for equity and infrastructure.

Political and industry challenges in Australia

Any ban or restriction is likely to face resistance. The federal government's New Vehicle Efficiency Standard encountered pushback, despite focusing on exhaust emissions from new vehicles rather than imposing sales quotas or bans.

Federal Minister Chris Bowen has emphasised that the transition should rely on efficiency standards, incentives, and infrastructure rather than outright bans, noting that Australia "cannot just wish away fossil fuels."

Opposition parties and some government MPs in car-dependent regions could exploit such proposals. Car dealers and industry lobby groups connected to combustion-engine vehicles may oppose them, while EV manufacturers and charging companies are more likely to support them.

Although EV uptake is increasing, affordability, model availability, and charging reliability remain considerations.

Designing an effective ban

A ban would need to be legislated or regulated rather than aspirational. It should include targets for EV adoption and infrastructure expansion to provide certainty for manufacturers and markets.

It should be accompanied by progressively stricter fuel-efficiency standards, incentives, and road pricing and registration reforms to ensure equity. Charging infrastructure must be expanded, particularly in rural, regional, and remote areas.

Equity considerations are necessary. Additional support for lower-income and rural households, trade-in schemes, and measures to maintain used-vehicle markets would help maintain access to transport.

Policy design should prevent backsliding through limited loopholes, regular reviews, and transparency mechanisms. The automotive industry may require workforce reskilling and incentives for local EV manufacturing.

A ban could form part of a wider strategy, including the removal of fossil-fuel vehicle subsidies and a cost-neutral feebate scheme, under which levies on high-emission vehicles fund rebates for zero- or low-emission vehicles. Examples include France's Bonus-Malus system and New Zealand's Clean Car Discount.

France's Bonus-Malus system is a vehicle incentive program that offers a bonus for purchasing low-emission vehicles and imposes a penalty (malus) on high-emission ones. New Zealand's Clean Car Discount was a government rebate and fee scheme that applied to the first registration of new and used imported light vehicles, ending on December 31st, 2023.

Implementation considerations

A 2035 petrol car ban would provide certainty and a clear direction for the transport system. Without it, transport could become a significant source of emissions. The effectiveness of such a measure depends on policy design, implementation, and adherence to targets.